16 October 2009

Notes on Influenza

"Influenza (the flu) is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses. It can cause mild to severe illness, and at times can lead to death. The best way to prevent seasonal flu is by getting a seasonal flu vaccination each year. Each year in the United States on average, 5% to 20% of the population gets the flu; on average, more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications, and; about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes. Some people, such as older people, young children, and people with certain health conditions, are at high risk for serious flu complications. This flu season could be worse. There is a new and very different flu virus spreading worldwide among people called 2009 H1N1 flu. This virus may cause more illness or more severe illness than usual. See 2009 H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and You for more information."—lifted from the CDC website with my italicized emphases.

By the way the numbers above are guesstimates but apparently reasonable.

More recent data:

"U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 – October 10, 2009
Posted October 16, 2009, 11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by October 13, 2009, 12:00 AM ET
Cases Defined by
Hospitalizations
Deaths
Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome* 15,696 2,029
Influenza Laboratory-Tests** 4,958 292

*Reports can be based on syndromic, admission or discharge data, or a combination of data elements that could include laboratory-confirmed and influenza-like illness hospitalizations.

**Laboratory confirmation includes any positive influenza test (rapid influenza tests, RT-PCR, DFA, IFA, or culture), whether or not typing was done.

This table is based on data reported to CDC by U.S. states and territories from a new influenza and pneumonia hospitalizations and deaths web-based reporting system. This system will be used to monitor trends in activity for the 2009-10 influenza season. This is a cumulative count beginning August 30, 2009. The table shows aggregate reports of all influenza and pneumonia-associated hospitalizations and deaths (including 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) since August 30, 2009 received by CDC from U.S. states and territories. This table will be updated weekly each Friday at 11 a.m. For the 2009-2010 influenza season, states are reporting based on new case definitions for hospitalizations and deaths effective August 30, 2009.

CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-2010 influenza season. For more information about influenza surveillance, including reporting of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, see Questions and Answers: Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1.

The number of 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC from April – August 2009 is available on the Past Situation Updates page.

For state level information, refer to state health departments.

International Human Cases of 2009 H1N1 Flu Infection
See: World Health OrganizationExternal Web Site Icon."

If these numbers are reasonable and fairly complete then it appears to me that the number of deaths is actually lower this season than for the last 10 or 15 years. What's all the fuss about?

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